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Wall Street Lowers Projections for UnitedHealth Following Disappointing Guidance

Suraay

2/24/20261 min read

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE: UNH) is ranked among the 14 best dividend stocks favored by Warren Buffett, but the healthcare giant has faced mounting pressure in early 2026.

Shares have fallen nearly 14% since the start of the year, reflecting growing investor concerns. The company reported fourth-quarter earnings on January 27, delivering a narrow earnings beat — topping Wall Street estimates by just one cent. While technically positive, the slim margin did little to improve sentiment.

Revenue came in at $113.2 billion, slightly below the $113.8 billion analysts had forecast. Even a modest miss raised questions about slowing growth. However, the biggest concern stemmed from the company’s forward guidance. Management projected full-year 2026 revenue of $439 billion — roughly $15 billion below Wall Street expectations. If realized, it would represent UnitedHealth’s first annual revenue decline in more than 30 years, helping explain the recent stock weakness.

In response, analysts revised their outlooks. On February 5, Mizuho lowered its price target on UNH from $430 to $350, while maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm noted that earnings recovery appears to be progressing more slowly than previously anticipated.

Similarly, Truist analyst David MacDonald cut his price target from $410 to $370 on February 2, though he kept a Buy rating. In a research note, he said the firm adjusted its projections following the company’s fourth-quarter results and updated 2026 guidance.

UnitedHealth operates as a diversified healthcare and well-being company, with major segments including Optum Health, Optum Insight and Optum Rx, as well as UnitedHealthcare, which serves Employer & Individual, Medicare & Retirement and Community & State markets.

While UnitedHealth remains a prominent dividend stock with long-term strengths, some investors may find greater upside opportunities elsewhere, particularly in select AI-related companies positioned to benefit from reshoring trends and evolving trade policies.