SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS — Texans dreaming of a chilly Thanksgiving filled with cozy sweaters, fashionable boots and crisp autumn air may need to reconsider their holiday wardrobe this year.

According to the latest long-range forecast from The Old Farmer's Almanac, Thanksgiving 2026 could feel more like an extension of warmer weather than the traditional beginning of the holiday season.

The publication predicts mild to warm temperatures across much of Texas, with southern portions of the state, including San Antonio, facing the possibility of rain.

With Thanksgiving falling on Thursday, November 26, 2026, the outlook suggests that holiday gatherings, outdoor activities and travel plans could be influenced by conditions that are warmer and potentially wetter than some residents might prefer.

However, meteorologists caution that forecasts issued this far in advance carry considerable uncertainty, meaning the weather could change significantly before the holiday arrives.

South Texas Could See Rain on Thanksgiving Day

The Old Farmer's Almanac released its Thanksgiving weather outlook on October 15, drawing on predictions featured in its 2027 edition.

For South Central Texas, the forecast points to warm conditions accompanied by a chance of showers.

That could create challenges for families planning outdoor Thanksgiving dinners, backyard celebrations or holiday activities around San Antonio.

Residents hoping to spend the afternoon enjoying the outdoors may want to prepare an indoor alternative in case wet weather develops.

The forecast does not specify exactly when rain might arrive, how long showers could last or how much precipitation individual communities might receive.

It also does not provide a precise probability of rainfall for San Antonio.

As a result, the prediction should be viewed as an early indication of possible weather patterns rather than a confirmed forecast for Thanksgiving Day.

San Antonio May Miss Out on Traditional Sweater Weather

For many Texans, Thanksgiving marks the unofficial beginning of the cooler holiday season.

It is often a time for autumn outfits, warm drinks and family gatherings in comfortable outdoor temperatures.

This year's preliminary outlook, however, suggests that San Antonio and surrounding communities may experience warmer conditions.

Instead of heavy jackets and winter accessories, residents could find themselves choosing lighter clothing for their Thanksgiving celebrations.

The potential for rain adds another complication, particularly for anyone planning outdoor meals, neighborhood gatherings or recreational activities.

Although the Almanac describes the regional outlook as warm, it does not provide specific daytime highs or overnight lows for San Antonio.

More detailed temperature projections will become available as the holiday approaches.

North Texas Could Enjoy Sunshine

While southern portions of Texas may face showers, the forecast offers a somewhat brighter outlook for northern areas of the state.

According to the Almanac, North Texas could experience warm temperatures and sunny conditions during the Thanksgiving holiday.

That would potentially create favorable weather for outdoor celebrations, family visits and other seasonal activities.

However, the outlook remains broad and does not guarantee sunshine for every community.

Texas is a large state with considerable regional weather differences, and conditions in Dallas, Fort Worth and surrounding areas may vary from those in San Antonio, Austin and communities farther south.

Travelers crossing different parts of Texas during Thanksgiving week should be prepared for changing conditions along their routes.

Will Texas Get Snow for Thanksgiving 2026?

For Texans hoping to see snowflakes during Thanksgiving, the Almanac's forecast offers little encouragement.

The publication identifies several regions of the United States where snow may be possible during Thanksgiving week, but Texas is not among them.

Areas highlighted for potential snowfall include the Northeast, Appalachian region, Lower Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Alaska.

That does not mean snowfall in Texas is impossible during late November. Rather, the Almanac's current long-range outlook does not identify the state as a likely location for Thanksgiving snow.

For residents dreaming of a winter wonderland, the prediction suggests they may have to wait longer for colder conditions.

What the Forecast Means for Thanksgiving Travel

Thanksgiving is one of the busiest travel periods of the year, and even moderate rainfall can affect road conditions and holiday schedules.

If showers develop across South Central Texas, motorists traveling to family gatherings may encounter wet roads and reduced visibility.

Those planning trips through the San Antonio region should monitor weather forecasts as Thanksgiving week approaches.

Families organizing outdoor celebrations may also benefit from having flexible arrangements.

For now, however, there is no reliable basis for predicting specific travel disruptions, severe weather or prolonged rainfall from the Almanac's regional outlook alone.

How Reliable Is a Thanksgiving Forecast This Far in Advance?

Although The Old Farmer's Almanac has a long history of publishing seasonal weather predictions, its long-range outlooks should not be interpreted as precise daily forecasts.

Weather conditions depend on atmospheric patterns that become clearer as a particular date approaches.

Forecasts issued more than a month before Thanksgiving cannot reliably determine the exact temperature, timing of showers or precipitation totals for individual cities.

The Almanac itself acknowledges that its Thanksgiving predictions are preliminary and could change before November 26.

For residents making important travel or event decisions, updated forecasts from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources will provide more useful information closer to the holiday.

A Different Kind of Thanksgiving in Texas?

A warm Thanksgiving would not be entirely surprising in Texas, where late-autumn weather can vary considerably from year to year.

Some holiday celebrations take place under clear, comfortable skies, while others are marked by cold fronts, rain or unusually warm afternoons.

This year's Almanac outlook suggests that South Texas residents should not count on chilly conditions just yet.

For those who enjoy warm weather, the forecast could be welcome news.

For others hoping to embrace the full autumn atmosphere, the possibility of another mild holiday may be less exciting.

Either way, families will have plenty of time to adjust their plans as more accurate weather information becomes available.

What Texans Should Expect as Thanksgiving Approaches

Based on the current Almanac forecast, the main expectations for Thanksgiving 2026 are relatively straightforward:

• San Antonio and South Central Texas: Warm weather with a chance of showers.

• North Texas: Generally warm conditions with the possibility of sunshine.

• Snow in Texas: Not indicated in the Almanac's current Thanksgiving outlook.

• Holiday travel: Rain could affect some areas, but specific impacts cannot yet be predicted.

• Forecast confidence: Low for exact daily conditions because Thanksgiving remains several weeks away.

The Bottom Line

Thanksgiving 2026 may not deliver the crisp, chilly weather that some Texans associate with the holiday season.

Instead, The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a warm holiday across much of Texas, with possible rain in San Antonio and surrounding southern communities.

While the early outlook may disappoint those hoping to break out their winter wardrobes, it is still too soon to know exactly what Thanksgiving Day will bring.

Texas weather has a reputation for surprising residents, and late November can deliver dramatic changes in temperature and conditions.

For now, Texans planning their Thanksgiving celebrations may want to keep both their sunglasses and umbrellas nearby — because this year's holiday weather could have a few surprises in store.