Week 15 concludes with a prime-time matchup as the Miami Dolphins travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers on Monday Night Football.

Pittsburgh enters the game as a slight home favorite, sitting alongside the Baltimore Ravens atop the AFC North race after pulling off an upset win over Baltimore last week. Despite trailing the Ravens in betting odds, the Steelers remain firmly in the division title conversation.

Miami, meanwhile, looked all but eliminated from playoff contention just a month ago. Since then, the Dolphins have rattled off four consecutive victories, reigniting their season — even if their postseason odds remain long at 300-1.

The Steelers are currently favored by three points at home, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET.

To help bettors navigate the matchup, ESPN analysts Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado and Ben Solak provide game picks, prop bets, DFS recommendations and trend analysis. (Odds via DraftKings; subject to change.)

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

Records:

Dolphins: 6–7 (7–6 ATS)

Steelers: 7–6 (7–6 ATS)

Line: PIT -3

Over/Under: 42.5

Moneyline: MIA +140 | PIT -166

FPI Projection: Steelers by 3.4 points (59.2% win probability)

Game Picks

Dolphins +3

Maldonado: The default assumption is to fade Tua Tagovailoa in cold weather and back Pittsburgh. But Miami has already adjusted by minimizing its reliance on Tua altogether. The Dolphins have shifted into a run-heavy, clock-controlling offense built around De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright, winning four straight games by limiting mistakes and shortening contests. Cold, windy conditions only reinforce that approach. Pittsburgh thrives on early pressure and disruption, which becomes harder in a low-variance game script.

Dolphins Moneyline (+160)

Solak: Miami’s late-season transformation into a run-first offense has been impressive. For the first time under Mike McDaniel, Tua has thrown 23 passes or fewer in four straight games. The improved offensive line and multiple capable ball carriers have created explosive plays on the ground. Pittsburgh’s run defense ranks near the bottom of the league in EPA per rush and struggles at linebacker — an area Miami can exploit. With less dependence on Tua, cold-weather concerns are minimized, and Miami holds advantages on both sides of the ball.

Notable Player Props & Bets

Passing Props

Aaron Rodgers: 209.5 yards | 1.5 TDs

Tua Tagovailoa: 193.5 yards | 1.5 TDs

Kenneth Gainwell Over 3.5 receptions (-116)

Bowen: Gainwell has recorded at least six catches in three of his last four games and continues to serve as a reliable short-area outlet.

Rushing Props

De’Von Achane: 80.5 rushing yards | Anytime TD (-120)

Jaylen Warren: 52.5 rushing yards | Anytime TD (+100)

Kenneth Gainwell: 22.5 rushing yards | Anytime TD (+190)

Receiving Props

Jaylen Waddle Longest reception over 21.5 yards (-120)

Loza: Even as Miami leans on the run game, Waddle continues to produce explosive plays downfield. He has 12 receptions of 22+ yards this season, while Pittsburgh’s secondary has allowed the second-most boundary receptions and multiple deep completions. Even if Tua struggles in the cold, Waddle remains a strong bet for at least one big play.