Seth Walder: Shakir’s target share has dipped to 20% from 29% last season, but two key factors make me optimistic about the upside in this spot.

First, his playing time has actually increased — he’s running routes on 68% of Buffalo’s dropbacks compared to 60% last year. Second, his air yards per target have nearly doubled, jumping from 5.3 to 9.8.

Add to that a Miami secondary already struggling and now dealing with injuries. Shakir is likely to line up primarily against rookie corner Jason Marshall Jr. in the slot, which creates even more opportunity. Taken together, these numbers suggest greater yardage potential than the posted line reflects. My model prices this prop closer to +1023.