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Airfares Climb as Middle East Tensions Drive Up Fuel Prices and Disrupt Flights

Suraay

3/10/20263 min read

Airlines across Asia and Europe are adjusting fares, adding fuel surcharges and modifying flight schedules as the conflict in the Middle East pushes jet fuel prices sharply higher and disrupts major air routes.

Several carriers, including Qantas Airways, Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) and Air New Zealand, announced fare increases this week, while others warned the ongoing crisis could lead to further price hikes or schedule changes.

Jet fuel prices, which had been hovering between $85 and $90 per barrel before recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, have surged to between $150 and $200, according to Air New Zealand. The airline said the sharp rise in fuel costs and uncertainty surrounding the conflict forced it to suspend its financial outlook for 2026.

The war has also disrupted a key oil export corridor, driving up airline operating costs and raising concerns that higher ticket prices could eventually affect travel demand.

“Increases of this magnitude require action to maintain stable and reliable operations,” an SAS spokesperson said, noting the airline had implemented a temporary price adjustment.

Some airlines have been able to cushion the impact through fuel hedging — contracts that lock in fuel prices ahead of time. European and Asian carriers such as Lufthansa and Ryanair have hedging strategies in place that secure part of their fuel needs at fixed rates.

Finnair, which hedged more than 80% of its fuel purchases for the first quarter, warned that a prolonged conflict could also affect fuel availability.

“A longer crisis could impact not only fuel prices but also supply, at least temporarily,” a Finnair spokesperson said.

The situation has also created operational challenges in the region’s airspace. Flight tracking service Flightradar24reported that aircraft arriving in Dubai were briefly placed in holding patterns on Tuesday following reports of a possible missile threat, highlighting the disruption affecting aviation in the Middle East.

Airlines are now adjusting routes and redeploying aircraft to manage the situation. Qantas said it is considering shifting additional capacity to European routes, while Cathay Pacific announced plans to increase flights to London and Zurichin response to rising demand and limited capacity on Asia-Europe routes.

Other carriers have already raised surcharges. Hong Kong Airlines said it would increase fuel surcharges by as much as 35%, while Air India announced a phased rise in surcharges for both domestic and international flights.

Not all airlines have moved immediately to raise prices. IAG, the parent company of British Airways, said it remains well hedged in the short term and does not currently plan fare increases. However, British Airways did confirm it had shortened its winter schedule to Abu Dhabi due to ongoing uncertainty in the region.

Airline stocks showed signs of stabilization after an earlier selloff as oil prices eased to around $90 per barrel Tuesday, down from a peak near $119 the previous day after President Donald Trump said the conflict could end soon.

In Europe, airline shares rose between 3% and 8%, while major U.S. carriers — including Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Alaska Air and American Airlines — closed slightly lower.

Most U.S. airlines no longer hedge fuel prices, leaving them more exposed to sudden increases. Fuel typically represents the second-largest expense for airlines after labor, meaning higher energy costs often lead to higher ticket prices.

Analysts say the industry may be able to absorb the increases because travel demand remains strong, with passenger traffic still growing faster than airline seat capacity. Some carriers are also expecting record demand during the upcoming spring travel season.

However, rising fuel costs may force airlines to slow expansion plans, which could further increase ticket prices as capacity tightens.

At the same time, shrinking available airspace is creating additional complications. With airlines already avoiding Russian airspace due to the war in Ukraine, the Middle East conflict has reduced route options even further, forcing pilots to take longer and more expensive flight paths.

Carriers in the United Arab Emirates — Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad — account for roughly one-third of passenger traffic between Europe and Asia, making disruptions in the region particularly significant for global travel.

Industry analysts warn that if the conflict continues, airlines could face sustained pressure on profit margins despite efforts to offset rising costs through higher fares and schedule adjustments.