The final wild-card matchup of the weekend takes place Monday night, as the Houston Texans travel to Pittsburgh to face Mike Tomlin’s Steelers. It’s a game defined by physical defense, contrasting offensive styles and a strategic chess match between Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans and one of the league’s most disciplined playoff teams.

We break down the matchup through scheme, personnel and offensive tendencies to identify the strongest betting angles. Matt Bowen provides film-based analysis, while Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Ben Solak contribute their top bets, prop insights and DFS recommendations.

Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

Game Information

ESPN/ABC | 8:15 PM ET

Houston (12–5, 9–8 ATS)
Pittsburgh (10–7, 9–8 ATS)

• Spread: HOU -3

• Total: 38.5

• Moneyline: HOU -155 | PIT +130

• Opening line: GB -1.5, O/U 46.5

• FPI projection: Texans by 1.6 points (53.9% win probability)

When the Texans have the ball

Bowen: Expect Houston to lean on balance. The run game should help set up deep in-breaking routes for quarterback C.J. Stroud, creating volume opportunities for Nico Collins and middle-of-the-field usage for tight end Dalton Schultz. Once the Texans reach the red zone, their ability to solve man coverage will be critical.

Edge: Texans

Best bet: Dalton Schultz OVER 41.5 receiving yards (-115). Schultz has topped 70 receiving yards in two of his last four games and faces a Pittsburgh defense allowing 65.9 receiving yards per game to tight ends — the fourth-highest mark in the league.

When the Steelers have the ball

Bowen: Pittsburgh should establish the run early with Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, attacking the edges and pairing those looks with play-action and boot concepts. While quick throws are a staple of Aaron Rodgers’ game, the Steelers will need explosive plays to keep pace. Watch DK Metcalf as the primary vertical threat.

Edge: Texans

Best bet: Gainwell OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-113). Gainwell has reached at least 50 receiving yards in two of his last four games and remains a reliable underneath option on swings, flats and linebacker matchups.

Staff picks & betting angles

• Texans -3 (-102)
  Solak: Houston finished the season undefeated down the stretch and rates as the strongest AFC playoff team by my numbers. Pittsburgh struggles to generate explosive passing plays — Houston’s main defensive weakness — making this a favorable matchup. Expect Stroud to find space attacking the intermediate middle of the field.

• Texans -2.5 (alternate line, -131)
  Maldonado: Houston’s defense thrives without relying on turnovers, while Pittsburgh’s offense falters if it doesn’t win the takeaway battle. In a low-total game, backing the team that controls pressure and efficiency is the smart play.

Key player props

Passing

• C.J. Stroud: 228.5 yards | 1.5 TDs

• Aaron Rodgers: 203.5 yards | 1.5 TDs

• Jayden Higgins anytime TD (+400)
  Loza: Higgins ranks second on the team in end-zone target share and has scored in each of his last two games, making him a strong long-shot option.

Rushing

• Woody Marks: 54.5 yards

• Jaylen Warren: 51.5 yards

• Kenneth Gainwell: 27.5 yards

• Pat Freiermuth anytime TD (+360)
  Moody: With Metcalf drawing defensive attention, Freiermuth could capitalize in the red zone against a Texans defense that has allowed multiple tight end touchdowns since Week 8.

Receiving & Defense

• Nico Collins: 72.5 yards

• DK Metcalf: 54.5 yards

• Dalton Schultz: 42.5 yards

• Will Anderson Jr. 1+ sack (+116)

• Danielle Hunter 1+ sack (+126)

Moody: Houston’s pass rush is elite, and Rodgers’ efficiency drops sharply under pressure. Expect Anderson and Hunter to disrupt Pittsburgh’s quick passing game and generate sacks.

DraftKings Captain Showdown – DFS Insights

Loza’s Captain: C.J. Stroud
Stroud’s upside hinges on a few explosive plays, and Pittsburgh’s secondary remains vulnerable downfield.

Maldonado’s Captain: Texans D/ST
Houston’s defense is built to generate pressure, stall drives and capitalize on sacks — an ideal DFS setup in a low-scoring game.

Value play: Dalton Schultz
Schultz has emerged as Stroud’s most reliable safety valve and draws a favorable matchup against a Steelers defense that struggles versus tight ends.